Performance – Winners, Mistakes & Stock Selections That Went Wrong

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Winners – 

 

StockEntryEntry PriceExitExit PriceReturn
KRBL ltdSept-1030May-185251650 %
Wimplast LtdAug-1090Aug-1714001456 %
La OpalaJuly-109Nov-131001011 %
Mirza IntFeb-1220Aug-17160700 %
CinemaxJune-1130Dec-12210600%
IFB India LtdFeb-1190Aug-15520478 %
Take SolutionsJune-1431Aug-17160416%
AmrutanjanMay-13110Nov-16550400 %
Cera SanitarywareDec-1065Sep-14300362 %
Poly MedicureDec-1065Sep-14300362 %
Siyaram SilkJan-12250Sep-151050320 %
Honda Power May-11350June-151150229 %
Bliss GVS PharmaJune-1120July-1455175 %
Capital FirstJan-12165June-15420155 %

 

Selling Out Early

We were able to identify these gems at extraordinarily low levels. However we made an error in judging their future prospects & sold out early. The valuations were above historical averages, and we underestimated the kind of re-rating these stocks would get due to their earnings / return ratio profile. The overvalued pockets became even more fancied in 2016 / 2017, and we just kept on watching from the sidelines.

In some cases like Venky’s, Future Retail & Edelweiss, we exited because of the lack of earnings visibility over the next 4 quarters! They proved out to be the most expensive mistakes.

Stock –  Entry Entry Price Exit Exit Price Return
Cera Sanitaryware Nov-11 170 Apr-14 850 400%
Bliss GVS Jul-11 20 Jul-14 55 175%
La Opala Jul-10 9 Nov-13 100 1011%
Poly Medicure Oct-11 65 Sep-14 300 362%
Venky’s India Mar-12 260 Oct-15 350 34%
Edelweiss Oct-14 50 May-16 70 40%
Future Retail Feb-15 150 May-16 160 7%
           

Wrong Stock Selections & Opportunity Cost

We misjudged the evolution of business models, went wrong on timing of certain stocks and ended up getting into value traps / bad companies. This is what we call our ‘Hall Of Shame’. This reminds us of not to repeat these mistakes again, keeps us humble & asserts that markets are supreme and one must never stop learning.

The biggest loss in having these stocks in our portfolio has been the opportunity cost more than the monetary one.

Stock Entry Entry Price Exit Exit Price Return
Globus Spirits Apr-12 75  Aug-15  80 4%
Prime Focus Jun-12 42 Jul-14 50 5%
ITHL Oct-10 265 Aug-15 275 4%
Suzlon Oct-11 45  Sept-15  23 -45%
Action Constructions May-11 42 Sep-14 35 -16%
Fedders Lloyd Feb-10 75 Jul-14 80 7%
Fortis Healthcare Aug-11 150 Jun-15 175 16%
CESC Apr-18 1000 Oct-18 850 -15%